Abstract:

Climate unpredictability and prolonged climate change are progressively influencing the efficacy and dependability of renewable energy systems globally. The 2024 Year in Review, published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), indicates that 2024 was the warmest year recorded, with global temperatures approximately 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. This year also witnessed significant regional variations in solar, wind, and hydropower potential, coupled with a 4% rise in climate-induced global energy demand relative to the 1991-2020 average. The analysis, utilizing four primary energy indicators wind and solar capacity factors, a precipitation-based hydropower proxy, and a temperature-derived energy demand proxy demonstrates that residual El Niño conditions, unprecedented ocean heat, and long-term warming resulted in significant regional disparities in energy outcomes in 2024. The report assesses the efficacy of seasonal climate forecasts concerning energy indicators for the first time. Results demonstrate that predictions, especially from the ECMWF system, may effectively predict regional anomalies in solar energy potential and electricity demand months in advance. For instance, predictions released in early summer 2024 accurately indicated exceptionally high energy demand and subpar solar performance across extensive regions of Africa.